Economy pushing Adspend online ...

The downturn in the U.S. advertising economy may be far more potracted than any since Madison Avenue began tracking its growth--and the chief factor, ironically, may be one of the fastest-growing sources of media spending: Online.

At least that's what advertising economist Jon Swallen is predicting from a slew of data indicating that the downturn is only partly due to cyclical economic issues such as sagging consumer spending. A bigger and much more fundamental change that will slow advertising growth into the foreseeable future, he says, is the accelerated shift of advertising budgets from expensive and highly inefficient traditional media such as TV, newspapers and magazines into much more cost-effective digital, and largely unmeasured, "below-the-line" media options.

"Some of what we are seeing continues to reflect that shift from traditional to digital media," said Swallen, who as senior vice president-research at TNS Media Intelligence has been closely monitoring which factors have been contributing to the slow growth on Madison Avenue. Last week, Swallen released an analysis of first-quarter 2008 ad spending across the major media, which showed a relatively tepid growth of just 0.6%.

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